Think Forward

Have we done innovation a disservice?

Over the past few years our firm has done a great deal of research and thinking around this new category of computers called Netbooks.  Netbooks are, we believe, the beginning of a larger trend around classes of computing devices that have enough processing power to do a few specific things well, but not enough to do everything that a full- blown computing device is capable of—, HD video editing for example.   These devices are quite capable of going online, checking email, and creating word documents and, spreadsheets, etc.  Quite frankly, they are good at doing what most folks do the majority of the time with their computers.   A point in which is making many in the computing industry very uncomfortable. 

The personal computer industry has with every passing year been introducing new computers packing the latest and greatest processors in order to empower consumers to do new and wonderful things, things that take a lot of processing power.   The only problem is that with every passing year, the majority of consumers do less and less of the things that require a lot of processing power.   In fact the world is waking up to the fact that we have had enough processing power and now the latest and greatest computers have more then enough.    Which should beg the question “why should consumers be paying high prices every year to buy machines that pack a lot more then than they really need for their day day-to to-day computing needs?”  All of this leads us to why Netbooks have become so interesting and perhaps a truly disruptive philosophy rather then than merely a new technology. 

I say disruptive philosophy because quite simply the emergence and success of Netbooks has caused a lot of us that observe and analyze the computing industry as well as those who make computers to begin to rethink the way in which we make computers in the future.   Primarily because we are starting to see a great deal of commoditization in the computing sector both with hardware and semiconductors in a way we haven’t seen before.   Think about this, : computers are just entering the market, in form factors and processing power that once cost between $1500 and $2000, for under $700.     It has all of a sudden become possible to sell very powerful small devices that once demanded premium prices for mainstream prices.     The fact that these computers selling well below the $1000 price point are running processors that aren’t the latest and greatest is moot when we remember that on average consumers have been paying for more processing power then they need and they are beginning to realize it. 

Now I believe we have two realities to choose from.  We can either choose the reality where consumers are content with what they are doing and the limited amount of processing power they use.  This reality has us focusing on meeting consumers where they are at in their computing needs.  Or we can choose the reality that we need to develop new and great computing experiences where software utilizes and takes advantage of great hardware, or at least it should.   

Apple brings this philosophy to bear with every product that goes out the door.  That is why Apple never abandoned its operating system.  That is why Apple makes very specific hardware decisions.     That is why Apple is eating the lunch of many in the personal computing sector, all I might add by not being the least expensive thing on the market.   It is for those and a host of other reason’s that Apple does not compete on price.   

I believe the software industry needs to learn a valuable lesson from video game software developers.    Video game software developers strive to push the envelope with their software anticipating each new GPU(Graphical Processing Unit) released by either NVIDIA or AMD ATI.   Where right now the best Intel CPU’s have 4 cores on one silicon dye die the latest and greatest GPU’s can have between 16 and 28 cores on a single silicon dyedie.    The video game software industry is one that strives to make the most of every new generation GPU and the consumers of this software are in the constant pursuit of the best hardware to take advantage of the great software being developed.  

I use the gaming sector simply as an analogy to point out what is missing in the general consumer software sector.   I rarely if ever hear of software developers anticipating the next CPU release from Intel or AMD so that they can take advantage of all the new processing power in their upcoming software release.    When I ask PC companies as well as Intel and AMD why I need more cores in my next computer, their answer almost always has something to do with high definition video.   Yet computers on the market running previous generation CPU’s play high definition video perfectly fine.   So again my question is why do I need more processing power?  

I don’t knowcan only guess at the answer.  My imagination hasn’t been sparked outside of the video game industry as to what is possible with more processing power.  Furthermore the video game industry takes advantage of GPU’s more then CPU’s, which is a trend we will here hear more and more about.   

The challenge before us is to create software and computing experiences that takes consumers forward into the computing future instead of leaving them content where they are.  

Advice to Palm, don’t stop innovating

I’ve had my hands on the upcoming Palm Pre for a few days now and have followed the development of this device / platform for over a year.   What I really love about this product is that Palm demonstrated that the latest and greatest technology or some novel feature is not always what is necessary to drive interest / demand for a product.   The new Palm Pre more then anything else innovated upon the experience with a mobile device.  

Palm took the most used applications phone, contacts, and calendar and made them all better.    They looked deeply at what people do and want to do with their mobile devices and brought developed features, software and user experience that helps people do the single most important thing a mobile device is used for and that is communication.   Things like universal search make finding a contact very quick and easy but then by integrated all the options you have to communicate with this contact, IM, text, call etc and quickly gives you the option to communicate with people.   Communicating is key and making communication easier is what Palm had done with the Pre.

Now I can’t talk about the Pre without talking about the Web Operating System, which will be so central to Palm as a company moving forward.    I agree with many in the media who are optimistically criticizing the beta application store that will be available on the Pre.   That being said I think it is important to understand that the way Palm has architected this Web OS is intentionally in a way so that creating software for the Pre is essentially as easy as creating software for the web.    Now in case it is missed this is largely important because what they have done is offered to the software development community a platform that does not require a new language or a new / foreign development environment.   Simply their message to developers is:  If you can write software for the web you can write software for the Pre.   This essentially gives them one of the largest software development communities right out of the gate.   This point cannot be overlooked by the industry because it is a very strong position for software development on the Pre platform.   

No one will argue that in the smart phone space we are well beyond our fascination with hardware and we are into our love affair with software on these devices.   One of the primary purchase decisions for the iPhone currently is the apps, there’s an app for that.   Apple has made great strides and will continue to make great strides attracting great software developers who will develop great software.    Apple’s developer community will continue to grow but what Palm has done was instantly open themselves to the millions of people who write software for the web, essentially giving them one of the largest software development community’s day one.

Now Palm is not without some pretty significant hurdles to overcome.  Getting volumes of Pre’s in the hands of consumers so there is a strong user base for developers to develop for, adding other carriers, and many more.  For Palm however the scariest challenge is the company a few cities away from them, Apple. 

One thing I know for sure is that Apple will keep innovating.   They understand what it takes to compete in this market and what their consumers want like no other company in the consumer business.   Yet I would not count Palm out, their brand is solid, they are the first device the media is acknowledging competes with the iPhone and I would not count them out. 

However my advice to Palm is: Do not take your foot of the innovation pedal, in fact press it to the floor.   

Why do teenagers text instead of talk?

For the past 9 years I have overseen and managed our Generation X and Y research at Creative Strategies mostly from a technology usage and adaption standpoint.    Many of our clients in the high tech industry from companies that make computers, to mobile devices to TV’s have requested my research as they seek to understand this demographic that is highly technical and demands things from their electronics that other generations can’t imagine.  

Just about 3 years ago many of our clients started to understand that they had to begin building products that met the needs of the most technological generation.   It is challenging to constantly push the innovation envelope especially with a demographic that doesn’t stay impressed with innovations for long but is instead constantly searching for the latest and greatest technology.   This stands as a challenge in the face of companies who primarily followed a model of innovating every 18 to 24 month’s not every 6 months.   This challenge still remains however one thing has become abundantly clear from my research in this space.  This generation communicates unlike any seen previously.

About 4 years ago we really started to see texting find its groove with a lot of the youth we were observing.   Today the average teen sends and receives about 2,800 texts a month.   Among our group of young trendsetters this was about the average for them 4 years ago.   One girl in fact had a Nokia device she had for 6 months and the numbers on the keys were completely rubbed off from such heavy texting.

Now the fact that this was happening was interesting as we were seeing social habits and behaviors changing but I was very interested into the psychological reason why this demographic preferred to communicate this way as opposed to talking on the phone.   

Several interesting things came out of my work in this area.

When a demographic grows up exposed to heavy amounts of multi media they develop the capability to process large amounts of information very quickly. 

This means kids who watched a lot of TV growing up, played video games, etc developed a mental capability to process things quickly. This assisted in attention deficit disorder and boredom from a lack of mental stimulation but also gave them the ability to multitask extremely well.   My most compelling conclusion from this observation is that when they talk on the phone they have to focus on talking to one person at one time.   However when they text they can talk to many people at one time.   Not only that but the conversation can go on all day. 

Now many sociologists fear that this is harming their actual social and conversation skills however I argue it is strengthening them.   Not one of the large number of kids we have observed doing massive amounts of texting is a social misfit or outcast.   As a matter of fact many of them are quite popular.   By leveraging a new communication medium such as text messaging, a new skill around managing conversations and the people those conversation are with will be an asset in the work force.   Furthermore a recent article in the New York Times highlighted a trend we observed as well which was this demographic regularly “hugged” as a form of saying hello.    We saw kids hug when they first saw each other at school or at the mall.   We basically observed the vast majority of them hug when they saw each other again after a prolonged time of not seeing each other.  

If their actual physical social interactions were being harmed why would they be so quick to physically embrace upon first physical contact for the day?   I would argue text messaging is strengthening their relationships due to how much they know about each other throughout the day without having to actually see them face to face.  

I can sum it up with some lessons I learned doing research for Microsoft for XBOX Live before the service started.   We came away observing that this demographic desires to go through life together even when they are not physically together.   Any communication medium that allows them to stay connected to their social groups while not physically being together will be utilized.   

When asked if they prefer to text their friends or actually hang out with them unanimously they preferred to hang out face to face however the desire was to hang out as a group more then just hang out one on one.    This demographic all though capable of one on one social interaction prefers a group setting.  

One thing we know about humans is that they are social beings.   I do not believe that this demographic is moving away from that core human desire.   They are however finding technologies that allow them to enhance this social nature and are seeking out new ways of socializing.   Technology I believe will add to and enhance our core desire of humans to socialize and communicate.  

Text messaging and social networks are the just the beginning.   

iPhone OS 3.0 Will raise the bar yet again

 After attending the iPhone event in March I realized just how much this new software platform will again raise the bar for the iPhone hardware and give software developers innovative opportunities for consumers to engage better with their applications.   

I say this because what struck me is that now applications on the iPhone will become dynamic instead of static.    What bothered me the most about iPhone applications is that they had to be running to be useful.   Which is logical but what happens with an IM for example when I exit the application.   The answer is I leave the chat only to have to pick it back up by opening the app and re-logging in.    The push service was always supposed to be the answer to this since Apple announced it last year but nothing came.    

That is why this new OS release will be so interesting as it will bring new life to applications by making them dynamic.    I will illustrate this with an example.   My wife and I both have iPhones, we both have Scrabble on our iPhones and enjoy playing scrabble on local WIFI and through Facebook.    We can have these great continues play at your leisure games, only the problem is I have to open the application to see if she completed her turn.    It would and hopefully will with OS 3.0 be far better for scrabble to notify me when her turn is complete so that I know it is my turn.     

This is just one example of many where OS 3.0 will be extremely valuable.   Another great use could be with Loopt or any other location based social network.   It would be great if I could be notified when friends are near me in case I want to arrange a get together.   Or potentially if a food service I have an application for allows my favorite restaurants to push me coupons when I am their area.

Once the applications resident in our most personal device which is our handheld it changes the way we can now again interact with the applications and brings an element of added usefulness to them as the applications them self become ubiquitously connected to the Internet. 

Microsoft's "Apple Tax" Campaign

Ina Fried over at CNET covered a new tact by Microsoft to advance their "Apple Tax" slogan.  I've been watching this for a while now and find it entertaining and a little disturbing.

 Now as a technology industry analyst I have to watch and analyze Microsoft and make judgement calls on them as a company. What disturbs me about this campaign is that it demonstrates to me that they don't know why Apple is doing as well as it is doing.   It concerns me that Microsoft is running a campaign that completely misses the point while Microsoft is also completely missing the point.  

Ina makes a point that I have been making as well which is that consumers are making very specific decisions to go with Apple hardware and software for a reason.  These consumers know they are paying more for it and it and they are fine with paying more.   Analyzing both these companies I know that there are positives and negatives to both platforms.   Consumers however know that the platform they are choosing is the best one for their computing needs.  

I would argue that consumers are not always looking for the cheapest product on the market.   They are looking for the exact one that works for their unique life / computing needs.   Microsoft needs to accept the fact that consumers are not choosing their platform and others hardware for reasons other then cost.  In fact I would love to know the answer to this question:

" If computers did not come with any operating system installed and consumers had to purchase either WIndows or OSX to install what percentage would choose Windows and what percentage would choose OSX."  

I would argue that the so called "Apple Tax" is the Apple software and it is valuable.

I advise Microsoft to focus on the areas and experience they are passionate about and target the consumers who want that experience.   I advise them to pick their battles wisely.

What I think is most interesting thing about this battle is that for a while it seems consumers did not know they had a choice in the Apple platform.   Perhaps they didn't really until Apple moved to Intel and supporting running Windows, but that is a longer debate.   None the less consumers now have a choice, are aware of that choice and a growing number of them are choosing.   To my point above they are not simply choosing on price but are looking for value, peace of mind, ease of use, and many more things.   

I could spend a very long time going on about what is good and bad about both platforms but the point remains that Microsoft needs to start picking it's battles with Apple more strategically while simultaneously keeping a constant eye on Google. 

Online Services and Ubiquitous TV

With the 2009 MLB season around the corner I thought I would share more on my experience canceling TV service to get all my TV for free online, well almost free.   Streaming all your shows online has one huge bonus that the service providers can't offer you.  That is "Ubiquitous TV."  Meaning TV anywhere you want it, or anywhere you can connect to the Internet, which is quickly becoming everywhere.   When I travel now I don't have to miss out on my favorite shows while my wife watches them at home.   Sling Box offers similar capabilities but often doesn't work when someone is watching the one box at home and the other wants to connect to it from somewhere else.   What streaming shows brings you is the ability to watch them anywhere at any time.  It is truly TV anywhere and I have found that end of the experience to be great.    However where streaming TV shows for free leaves off is where the service providers really come in and that is premium TV services.  

I've looked at the cost analysis and have concluded for my TV watching needs it is cheaper to simply purchase the services you are interested in, instead of subscribing to outrageously high cable or satellite bills and getting them bundled.    So all though I am getting all the shows I watch for free I will be subscribing to MLB.TV for $79.95 a month.   This will bring with it all the benefits of ubiquitous TV as I can watch games on the road as well as at work.   Something I couldn't have done without a Sling box setup before.   I also subscribe to ESPN 360 and get all the college sports I want online.   So the only thing left for me to figure out before the fall is how I am going to get the NFL online, preferably live.   There are archived ways of doing this but I like to watch my sports in real time.  This is why previously cable or satellite was the only way to go.   Quickly though I think the sports leagues are learning that streaming services can be an incredibly profitable way to move forward. 

Canceling TV service to explore the world of online TV

I was thinking that the recent downturn in the economy, along with my wife and my decision to cut out unnecessary expenses, provided me with a great opportunity to cut our cable service and explore online TV. 

I have for a long while now used computers as the backbone of my home media network but never for TV. So the day has arrived for me to completely buy in.   To do this I have chosen a unique piece of hardware to be connected to my TV in the AlienWare Area 51-M15x.   This is one of my favorite pieces of hardware and I know it will succeed in this task. 

My first observance was that not all the networks have all the shows I like available to stream online.  Things like American Idol, The Big Bang Theory, a host of cooking shows I like etc are not to be found online.  A host of shows on Disney my girls like are also not available.  When I looked at iTunes and possibly subscribing to shows I found the cost to be too hard to swallow and a lack of up to date availability of some of the same shows.  

The next problem I have encountered is not so much a problem then a frustration.   There is no good software online that exists that blends all the online streaming shows I like into one nice guide and user-interface.   Joost does some but not all, a new company Boxee TV does some but not all.   Both get close and are useful but I am yet to find something that brings it all together in one elegant guide and UI. 

So what I have resorted to doing to make the process as quick and painless as possible is to bookmark direct links to my favorite show pages in my browser.   So in this case a wireless mouse is my remote. 

So far it has not been to bad.  I actually have found myself watching more shows then just the ones I like to see whether I like them or not.    

I have also greatly enjoyed the Netflix streaming direct to my PC.  

All which leads me to my next discovery.    A company I heard about at CES called Allio TV which has built into the TV a fully function PC.   I am getting one of these for our Lab in order to give it the full hands on treatment but I have high expectations.  

I will continue to post feedback on this adventure.  There is a lot to be done but I do feel that many of the experiences show a ton of potential more capable computing devices show up in the digital living room.

"My Grandson said I should get a Mac."

So, I was in a local mall the other day and I saw an elderly couple carrying an iMac to the Apple store.   While they were in line waiting for a introductory course on the Mac OS I asked them why they decided to go with the Mac.    

The elderly gentleman said "Well my Grandson said I needed to get a Mac, so I did!"   I couldn't help but smile. 

Blackberry STORM: A case of the Me-To's

It has been incredibly interesting to watch how all the cell phone manufacturers have been scrambling to compete with the iPhone.    RIM's latest release with the STORM is no exception to the desperate feeling the industry has been in attempting to duplicate their own version of the iPhone.   

What this is a result of is a complete misunderstanding of what exactly it is that makes the iPhone such a successful product.   If other companies had understood this they would have focused their resources in other places entirely or to build up more of their own ecosystem in order to compete.     

RIM thinking they could simply slap a touch screen on their new device, and completely abandon what it is that made their products great in the first place, is entertaining at best.   RIM's customers gravitated to their devices simply because they were hands down the best devices for those who desperately need to pound out e-mails wherever they happen to be night and day.   To go away from this strategy is ill advised and shows RIM is not quite sure where their value actually lies.    

The iPhone is not successful because it has a touch screen.   It is successful for a hosts of reason's but primarily because Apple knows and understands who their customer is for the iPhone and they are delivering in leaps and bounds for that customer. Apple for as much as they discuss corporate e-mail support, the iPhone is NOT the best device for doing e-mail.  It is a functional e-mail device but there are other devices out there that do a better job.  Namely many of RIM's other then the STORM.  Apple has many software strength's as well to leverage its iPhone hardware.  A superior mobile web browsing experience for instance, great software developer support etc. Apple does make fantastic hardware but the addition of killer software puts them in a very good spot.  One that RIM is not even close to, nor are many other handset makers.  All of this adds up to a competitive advantage that few companies can rival.  Include in that a happy smiling Mac genius who will take care of all your troubles with a smile while you go shopping and come back to hopefully have your troubles solved.   Who wants to waste any time at all inside the store of a carrier, the mall is a much better place to waste time. 

The Internet and our New President

I hope we have seen the last of boring disassociated politics where Washington is a walled garden and we the people just observe what happens but only participate every 2 and 4 years in the democratic process.    

Since the Internet is one of the most powerful mediums for communication, collaboration and more I truly hope that Barack Obama harnesses this power to bring the people back into the democratic process.    Our nation was founded on the idea of “by the people, for the people” but as I have observed it, it feels more like “by Washington for Washington. “
It looks like all the evidence is pointing to our new president will use the Internet in new and fresh ways to get his message out and to involve the people to let their voice be heard.    It will also be interesting if he does choose the first CTO and he does in fact surround himself with smart technologists.  

Our new president has chosen Change.Gov to be the destination where he plans to continually outline his plans for government.   He has expressed interest in having more regular video messages from himself and others on his site updated fairly regularly.  This will break the mold in a positive way away from only hearing for our President frequently and generally in times of distress.  
Obama has also said that he will take feedback from the people on all legislation he is working on that is not immediate presidential decisions.     This will allow the people’s voice to really be heard in new ways we have not seen before. 

He also plans to use the site to inspire and encourage people to get involved and serve in their community to make it better.    I applaud this greatly and truly hope that he accomplishes this.    I know that this will go over quite well with the younger generation who already desires to make a difference in the world.   

At the end of the day I truly hope that we are making progress to overcome the incredible wall of indifference that has kept American’s, not all but a majority, from truly caring for their neighbor.     Obama highlighted this in his victory speech when he pointed out that it is not just about us but also about caring for others.   This is a motto we should all live by.

“Be the change you want to see in the world.” - Ghandi