Think Forward

How to talk to your GPS

I have recently been trying out some of the latest in car portable navigation systems. Many of these are now voice activated for my convenience of not having to use my hands while driving to configure the device. This is a great idea however current voice technology makes this a poor experience. I can see where this technology is going and how it would be nice in the middle of my route to simply say "find me a Starbucks" and be re-routed to the nearest Starbucks. However this is not quite the experience delivered currently.

I initially thought I would use the voice activation more then I have. And unfortunately more often then not when I do want to use the voice activation it doesn't work. The flip side is that is generally starts working when I don't want it to. An example being that I'm talking on the phone, through my hands free bluetooth device, and in the middle of the call usually with a client or a reporter my GPS will gawk loudly at me "DID YOU SAY CANCEL ROUTE" or my favorite "SAY A COMMAND." Interestingly during a conversation this can happen several times. There have been some times during a less formal conversation when I actually get in an argument with my GPS. It would make a great short video sometime if I have time to have my interns make it this summer.

All that being said the experience still needs to get better and more streamlined. I see where GPS manufacturers are going with the technology but more quality assurance needs to go into these for the price point for the present market.

The Digital Nucleus - My new digital home addition

I've been testing for a while now several of the entries into the home server market by Microsoft and several others. Prior to these servers I used a mesh-network of my electronics to distribute and access my digital content on all my displays.

Recently though I added several connected photo frames that can accept "streamed" content that really pushed me to now have all my media content in one location. This led me to move all my media that I want connected like photos, video, music etc onto these servers as the digital backbone or "nucleus" as I like to call it.

I am a strong believer in keeping your data network seperate from your media network. In short that means that I would have one network, say 802.11x to let all my machines get to the internet for data. Then a seperate more proprietary network that connects my entertainment devices to things like my digital nucleus/server or each other. This way the experience of video not skipping or music getting lost, pictures not being delivered in full quality will not happen. Their is a higher level of quality assurance in this model where the media network and the data network is seperate.

The result now is all the video I create, photos I take and music I acquire are all now automatically synced with my storage server and readily available to access at any time by my TV's, PC's and connected photo frames.

Thus far the experience has been quite positive and my assumptions of the importance of a digital nucleus for the family or individual has been confirmed. Wheter that nucleus is online, mesh network of devices or a dedicated server is yet to be flushed out. However the option that it is all three is highly likely.

It's official Blue Ray is our Hi-Def format.

It appears it is official as we all thought would happen as a windfall from several retailers and studios backing Blue Ray. This has been a fascinating event to watch. We can learn many things from this war that will be useful in the future of the electronics industry.

We all knew that having two formats was counter productive to the consumer electronics industry. If we could have aligned with one format at the outset everyone would have benefited. I hope now that this has happened several times we can not make this mistake in the future.

On that note in the future we may not be looking at a format war but more of a codec war. Lets hope that as the industry looks digital distribution that we are not in a digital format/codec war in the future. That will take technology industry and Hollywood to for once in their life collaborate for the better good of all interested parties.

From an outside looking in perspective I think that this is again the case where the better format lost. Sony lost with BetaMax and it was the better format. I say that HD-DVD was the better format because it was dual sided and supported HD-DVD on one side and DVD on the other. This I feel has a very compelling value proposition to consumers because when they buy the disk it is backward compatible and not constrained to one location. So taking the movie to a friends house our playing in non HD-DVD player in the house is possible.

Obviosly we are already looking to the future of distribution whether movies will be rented/streamed to the home in an on-Demand fashion or people will buy them and keep them locally stored to be served up to the home remains the question.

That being said I truely hope Hollywood starts to grasp some innovative new business models that create value around motion pictures and new consumer services.

I believe Sony fought a well played game and their efforts with PS3 and Sony Pictures support is what won this battle for them.

Millennial voters and the 08 election

Because I have spent a great deal of the last 5 years researching the Millennial mindset as it relates to technology and media, I have been brought in to do some advising of several political campaigns. Every political candidate has always viewed young voters as an elusive group that rarely votes. There are a number of reason young voter turnout is generally always low but this year will be different for several reasons.

1. This year more then any year that I have been able to vote, which is just over ten years now, it truly feels like our vote can count. There doesn’t seem to be a clear winner yet in any race which really makes it feel like each vote means something.

2. The second is the Internet. Several campaigns have tremendous online platforms utilizing every possible community and web based technology to communicate with the public and encourage involvement. Because there are so many hot topics that are resonating with young voters the Internet has allowed all of us to get more information on the issues and see which candidates resonate with our values.

3. The third is psychological for Millennials. The Millennial mindset is very different from past generations. Academic research has pinpointed this demographic has having many of the same traits as the WW II generation called the “Greatest Generation.” Millennials are very sensitive to the worlds issues and feel that as a group they can be a part of the solution to make the world better. Many things have contributed to this from the news, to the Internet as well as celebrity support etc. However due to the overwhelming feeling that our country has a tainted brand and that this election is an important step in re-establishing the greatness of America not only locally but abroad as well is understood by the younger voters. This is a large contributing factor to younger voter turnout.

CES 2008 Take-Aways and Trends

This years CES was a bit lackluster in my opinion. I was surprised not to see more innovation from the handset manufacturers in terms of handset innovation for 2008. It seems like any attempt to go after the iPhone was more a follower implementation then a leading innovation.

Clearly the most innovative products at CES were the Ultra-thin HDTV’s. Sony had one of the more amazing showcases with its 11inch and 27 inch OLED TV coming in at 3MM thick.

One trend I am interested in watching this year is the connected digital picture frame space. Kodak showed me some very cool displays attached to their Easy Share service so friends and family can share pictures right to the frame. I believe there is a lot of value in this service particularly as people start getting more creative with their digital photos and desire to do more. What is better then to send those new family vacation pics right to Grandma’s frame which alerts here when she has unseen photos. Eventually this experience makes its way to the TV for a complete experience but there are still tons of barriers to overcome before that is possible. This makes the connected photo frame very important to the adoption of new display services.

The CEA also dropped some of their forecasts for this year due to economic uncertainty and possible weak consumer spending. I am bullish that the electronics sector will suffer much even if we do slide into slight reception but that is just my opinion given history and some trends but I am no economist.

With all of that said I think CES 2009 may be a very different story in terms of innovation.

Happy New Year!

Warner Brothers going 100% Blue Ray

News broke today that Warner Brothers has decided to distribute High Definition DVD's strictly on Blue Ray. This is a logical move given the costs associated with supporting three formats. There has been a great deal of consumer confusion and high definition DVD formats have suffered along with DVD sales suffering as well.

I believe Warner Brothers is looking at the installed base of formats and see Blue Ray in the lead. I think other studios may very well follow suit and start placing their bets. But this puts Blue Ray now with Sony, Warner Brothers and Blockbuster fully on board.

Let's see what happens at CES.

Innovations in Consumer Voicemail Services

Prior to my iPhone I had been a long time Windows Mobile user. One of my favorite features as simple as it was, was custom ring-tones. I was the person that had a specific ring-tone for all my closest contacts. I also changed those ring-tones pretty often and spent a lot of time creating new ring-tones.

I have recently found a new service that has me spending a lot of time like I did with ring-tones but this time with custom voicemail. The service is called You Mail and it has several cool features.

The first is that I can create custom voicemail messages for all my contacts. So my wife, parents, business colleagues, college friends etc all can have their own voicemails personalized for them. I literally spent hours when I first signed up for this free service creating custom voicemails for all my contacts. I went so far as to get out my recorder gear and break out my guitar to record a voicemail for my wife with all my musical abilities, which isn’t much, but it was fun. If you don’t feel like going through all the trouble to record a custom voicemail for your contacts you can simply pick from a large list of community voicemails that are fun and funny as well.

The second compelling feature is that I can check my voicemails online in a user interface that looks similar to web based e-mail. I found myself doing this more then I thought I would.

The third compelling feature was the text messaging voicemail alerts. Now having experienced visual voicemail on the iPhone this feature was found lacking however for those without the iPhone it is a poor mans visual voicemail.

After experiencing many of these different services it really got me thinking the levels of personalization and customization that are still unexplored in consumer services. I am happy to see You Mail innovate in consumer services and start to give consumers more control over their devices.

I look forward to seeing more innovation in 08 in consumer services.

Dec Analyze This - Social Games

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/feature/2977/analyze_this_divining_the_next_.php?page=4

Here is my Dec contribution to Gama Sutra's Analyze This.

Vertical Social Networks - Great Examples

If you read my Future of Social networks posts a few month's ago I mentioned that we felt the value of social networks are when they are vertical or focus on people of like minds or passion. I have found a few sites that truly embody this and are gaining heads of steam. The sights are Dogster and Catster. What is very interesting about these sites is that they appeal to the animal loving community at large from a social network standpoint. But they also appeal to specific dog and cat owners who can join a sub group that is specific to their breed of dog and cat. Their is a local section so local pet clubs can interact and schedule events etc.

This is truly when the value of social network come alive. Sometimes in Silicon Valley we get caught up in the constant innovation we see around us. We forget that "middle Amercia" is not online all day browsing the web. They browse the web in spurts and only for limited times at a day if at all. For us to think they all want to spend the little time on the internet they spend searching random people is absurd. Instead we should reason that they want to spend the little time on the internet they have really getting value from it. Social networks add the most value to people's lives when you are connected with like minded people who have the same passions as you.

Dogster and Catster are great examples of this and brilliant for advertisers who want to reach animal lovers.

Gamasutura - Analyze this

Link to my latest edition to Gamasutra's Analyze This feature.

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/feature/2012/analyze_this_will_there_ever_be_.php

On whether the industry will develop a standardized gaming platform: I do not think the industry will ever resort to one console. It would be bad for the industry. I could understand the argument for a single development standard, but not a single hardware standard. A single development standard would obviously make the lives of developers much easier and game development overall cheaper.

However, in regards to a single console, it would hinder innovation and consumer choice. I think everyone would agree that life would be pretty boring if all we had were Windows-based computers. One console in my opinion would be a step backward for the industry, not forward.

On how independent developers would not benefit in a market with a single gaming platform: I have talked with many publishers and developers and I understand the struggles they go through. However, consumers benefit when choice exists. It causes hardware and software makers to continually innovate and differentiate to stay competitive. It is those factors that contribute to the growth of an industry. At the end of the day, consumers are the ones spending the money to drive the interactive entertainment industry forward. They are the ones who need to be catered to because they are the ones really in control.

On the PC already being the de facto standardized gaming platform: This analogy for the PC is true right now because Windows is the dominant operating system. This does not mean that companies using other operating systems won't enter the market. I hear a lot of developers are either supporting or looking to support Apple. This, again, is good for the consumer. The consumer should choose the platform that fits their life best, and this is how it should be.