Think Forward

Use Case Computing

Posted a new article on how we have started looking more into computing use cases to help us understand consumers usage with new electronics in the future.  

Check it out and leave some comments. 

CreativeStrategiesOnline.com

Disney Digital Books - On the right track

Last week I wrote an article at Creative Strategies Online discussing the shift in publishing to digital formats.  In essence what I was talking about is the idea that publishers need to think not about how to re-purpose books into digital formats for digital distribution but how to re-invent books all together.  

Disney is on the right track with their launch of www.disneydigitalbooks.com. With this new initiative from Disney I think we see a glance and what is possible when we begin to think about the question of re-inventing books.   

Disney is in the early stages of this development and I am sure they will continue to innovate with more multi-media over time.   But the important thing is that they have jumped off on the right foot with a powerful new service at a pretty decent price point.    

These digital books are online only through the browser but Disney has stated they are looking at all platforms.   Keep in mind Steve Jobs is on their board and a majority shareholder.    

What I love about this initiative is that Disney has now entered this market in full force and will continue to open the eyes of publishing executives about what is possible as we create what is in essence a multimedia book.     These books from Disney are much more interactive and engage with the child in the reading experience by using sound, animation and more.  

My initial fear with the creation of multimedia books is that it would skew too heavily on the multimedia front.   I am glad that Disney has come out and said that their experience will be about reading and the media will be supplemental to the reading experience.   This again is a good way to look at this transition from analog to digital books. 

Disney has the marketing power to really drive this concept and create value around their assets.   It is exciting to see a company like the Walt Disney Company embrace a medium, have a vision and create something truly valuable.   

Launching CreativeStrategiesOnline.com

All though I will still be updating my blog with more informal thoughts and analysis, I am happy to announce the launching of www.creativestrategiesonline.com. 

Our company will use this website for more formal articles and analysis that we will self publish and distribute through this website.    

Check it out regularly and follow the twitter feed from it and other relevant tech news twitter.com/creativestrat

Intel launching App store - Infrastructure

This is one of the things that came out of IDF that I was surprised didn't get the same kind of media attention as other announcements.    

What stands out to me about this announcement is that this is a necessary advancement for Windows based software.   I say that because software discovery is one of the most discombobulated experiences for consumers on the Windows platform.   I've been harping on Microsoft and companies that ship Microsoft clients that they need to make the software discovery process much better.   

We do a lot of research spending time talking to consumers and observing their computing habits and one thing that always stands out is that they only really use a handful of applications regularly.    I don't believe this is solely because their computing needs are so incredibly simplistic that all they need is a handful of programs.   If feel more fundamentally to the point is that they don't realize the plethora of great software that exists out there in the universe to add value to their computing experience.  

This is one of the more revolutionary aspects of not only the iTunes App store but iTunes in general.   When we observe consumers using iTunes what we find is they spend a great deal of time discovering.   They discover music, movies, apps and more and enjoy doing it.  

My thought all along is where is this experience in digital for the software world.   When was the last time you saw a group of consumers standing in the software isle at your local computer store simply browsing software.    My experience is those isles are constantly empty as if they plague existed in those isles. 

What is fundamentally important to an app store infrastructure akin to what Intel is working on is that this fundamentally has the opportunity to eliminate the need to get software in disc form as well as lead to a world of computing software discovery.   

Apple isn't perfect when it comes to OSX software but they do have something useful on their website that helps you find all kinds of great software, categorized and reviewed to help you find useful software.   I do this at least once a month and almost always find an application that makes my Mac better and myself more productive. 

If this app sore infrastructure or something like it takes off we could safely say the end of optical disc drives in computers is in sight. 

Why do teenagers text instead of talk?

For the past 9 years I have overseen and managed our Generation X and Y research at Creative Strategies mostly from a technology usage and adaption standpoint.    Many of our clients in the high tech industry from companies that make computers, to mobile devices to TV’s have requested my research as they seek to understand this demographic that is highly technical and demands things from their electronics that other generations can’t imagine.  

Just about 3 years ago many of our clients started to understand that they had to begin building products that met the needs of the most technological generation.   It is challenging to constantly push the innovation envelope especially with a demographic that doesn’t stay impressed with innovations for long but is instead constantly searching for the latest and greatest technology.   This stands as a challenge in the face of companies who primarily followed a model of innovating every 18 to 24 month’s not every 6 months.   This challenge still remains however one thing has become abundantly clear from my research in this space.  This generation communicates unlike any seen previously.

About 4 years ago we really started to see texting find its groove with a lot of the youth we were observing.   Today the average teen sends and receives about 2,800 texts a month.   Among our group of young trendsetters this was about the average for them 4 years ago.   One girl in fact had a Nokia device she had for 6 months and the numbers on the keys were completely rubbed off from such heavy texting.

Now the fact that this was happening was interesting as we were seeing social habits and behaviors changing but I was very interested into the psychological reason why this demographic preferred to communicate this way as opposed to talking on the phone.   

Several interesting things came out of my work in this area.

When a demographic grows up exposed to heavy amounts of multi media they develop the capability to process large amounts of information very quickly. 

This means kids who watched a lot of TV growing up, played video games, etc developed a mental capability to process things quickly. This assisted in attention deficit disorder and boredom from a lack of mental stimulation but also gave them the ability to multitask extremely well.   My most compelling conclusion from this observation is that when they talk on the phone they have to focus on talking to one person at one time.   However when they text they can talk to many people at one time.   Not only that but the conversation can go on all day. 

Now many sociologists fear that this is harming their actual social and conversation skills however I argue it is strengthening them.   Not one of the large number of kids we have observed doing massive amounts of texting is a social misfit or outcast.   As a matter of fact many of them are quite popular.   By leveraging a new communication medium such as text messaging, a new skill around managing conversations and the people those conversation are with will be an asset in the work force.   Furthermore a recent article in the New York Times highlighted a trend we observed as well which was this demographic regularly “hugged” as a form of saying hello.    We saw kids hug when they first saw each other at school or at the mall.   We basically observed the vast majority of them hug when they saw each other again after a prolonged time of not seeing each other.  

If their actual physical social interactions were being harmed why would they be so quick to physically embrace upon first physical contact for the day?   I would argue text messaging is strengthening their relationships due to how much they know about each other throughout the day without having to actually see them face to face.  

I can sum it up with some lessons I learned doing research for Microsoft for XBOX Live before the service started.   We came away observing that this demographic desires to go through life together even when they are not physically together.   Any communication medium that allows them to stay connected to their social groups while not physically being together will be utilized.   

When asked if they prefer to text their friends or actually hang out with them unanimously they preferred to hang out face to face however the desire was to hang out as a group more then just hang out one on one.    This demographic all though capable of one on one social interaction prefers a group setting.  

One thing we know about humans is that they are social beings.   I do not believe that this demographic is moving away from that core human desire.   They are however finding technologies that allow them to enhance this social nature and are seeking out new ways of socializing.   Technology I believe will add to and enhance our core desire of humans to socialize and communicate.  

Text messaging and social networks are the just the beginning.   

Microsoft's "Healing Windows" Campaign

Depending on how closely you have followed the news about Microsoft's plan to launch marketing campaigns attempting to "heal" the tarnished image you have most likely by now seen the new "I'm a PC or Bill Gates and Jerry Seinfield commercials.    Apple has been running it's "I'm a Mac and I'm a PC" commercials for a couple years now and is linked to one of the many things that has caused Microsoft's consumer brand appeal to drop according to recent polls.    Of course Microsoft would not sit back and let Apple continue to make them look silly but the real question was what would they do.  

Apple's direct attack at  PC was brilliant and put Microsoft in a difficult position because they couldn't duplicate the attack.  It was one of those whoever struck first wins because if the other duplicates the attack they look like a copy cat.   Interestingly I liken what Microsoft is doing and should continue to do to heal its image to what the Presidential candidates should do with their messages.   Which is don't attack your opponent but talk about what you bring to the table.    Microsoft's had for too long depended on the fact that they were the "default" operating systems and that consumers didn't really have much choice on using their products.    That is no longer true and consumers are beginning to wake up to the fact that they do have a choice on what computer meets their needs as consumers.   This has put Microsoft into a position where innovation must return to the central driving force for their company.   They need to actually begin to start creating things consumer want and will consciously choose rather then be snuck into their hands with the purchase of their PC.  

This again, as competition in any market does, will lead to innovations in consumer hardware, software and services and thus the consumer wins.   We want Microsoft to remain competitive and innovate on its offering so that Apple will finally have a worthy competitor.  

Microsoft is taking baby steps toward the right future and their new branding campaign is done quite well in my opinion to soften their image.   I advise them to continue to send the message of what they bring to the table for consumers and keep pushing what consumers can do on their platform that is relevant to their lives.

Netflix Player by Roku - Review + Thoughts

I went over to Roku's offices in late April to meet with Roku founder Anthony Wood and several other team members to discuss this new Netflix player they developed. I've met with Anthony many times before over the past few years and always found him to be intelligent and forward thinking. He was one of the original founders of Replay TV and for that I have always given him a great deal of credit. So anything Roku puts out I am generally interested in to start. I had a rough idea of what I was going to see going into the meeting. During the course of the meeting I was pleasantly surprised with this new Netflix player by Roku that focused on Netflix. Another quick bit of history is that Anthony did a short stint at Netflix working on some of their set top box integration strategies. All of that I feel is relevant due to the rational behind this box and where it may go.

The Roku box itself is quite simple and tremendously easy to set up. The user interface is fantastic and one of my favorite features is the way is rewinds and fast forwards. Because there is no drive the entire experience is done by streaming the content right to the box. So initially one would think fast forwarding and going back in a movie would be difficult and painfully slow. That is not the case with this box. Roku worked closely with Netflix at the software layer to allow you to see scenes in the timeline of the movie both forward and back that you can simply choose to go forward to or go back to. When you do this it simply buffers the stream from that spot and then starts right where you selected. Quite nice and quite pleasant.

One other feature I really like is how it handles episodic content. Episodic content is my favorite feature of Netflix streaming and the Roku player handles it well by letting you select any of the episodes in a series and lets you pick up where left off and any current episode you were watching.

Lastly I liked more then I thought using the computer to add content instead of using the TV. My biggest beef with the first Apple TV was that it required iTunes to add and discover content to view on the TV. I felt I would have the same feeling with the Roku player however that was not the case. Probably because I was familiar with the Netflix site to add movies to my queue I found this experience to be quite nice. One could envision in the future using your PC to configure your DVR recorded shows etc. None the less there was something familiar about using the PC and the web to configure the streaming queue and movies or TV shows added to the TV interface in less then 15 seconds.

Now I am sure people will be harsh on this category, no one wants another box in the living room we know. Is this player a DMA in the future who knows. What I do know is that most other box's that extend video or media to the TV have not faired so well. I believe that is because they do so much and do not have a tangible use case attached to them that most consumers can understand. This is not the case with the Netflix player by Roku. I feel it is the simplicity of this box that will lead to it's success. I also feel that it may very well help to spur the thinking behind things like Vudu and Apple TV in the future. Once consumers get a handle on a simple use case then they will start asking what else can I do like see my photos or view networked content.

Roku can easily go that way in the future but for now simplicity will be what moves this box into consumers homes.

From analog to digital = From linear to nonlinear experiences

In many of our corporate presentations to our clients we describe how we believe we are in the middle of this journey from analog to digital. We explain how the first block of this 50 yr journey was bringing digital technologies to the enterprise. Then we explain how the next 25 yrs will be the journey to bring digital technologies to the masses. I feel as though a more fundamental observation needs to be made about this transition so that we can understand the impacts of digital technology in the future and the value that it will bring to the masses.

The observation in which I am referring to is the fact then when a digital technology presents itself in the market we always move from a linear experience to a nonlinear experience. Meaning something that was experienced in one way may now be experienced in many different ways.

In the business realm the entrance of digital technologies directly increased efficiency and productivity. This was observed early on with the first application on the personal computer assisting in moving away from paper based solutions in the workforce (linear) to digital forms of databases, communication, accounting, etc (nonlinear). I recall my first job in 1997 at Cypress Semiconductor was to completely overhaul the system of document control which was all paper based and convert it to a digital system all through the corporate Intranet. This move from linear to nonlinear experiences or processes greatly impacted and will continue to impact the enterprise of tomorrow.

In the consumer realm we have seen only a peek at what the move to digital will bring. Tivo was a good first example. Before Tivo television could only be viewed at a certain time, on a certain day, in a certain place. Unless of course you were an expert with the VCR at which point you inconveniently and many times unsuccessfully, in an analog way, time and possibly place shifted the one show you recorded. Or you could be a complete geek and have two VCR's in order to capture multiple shows. None the less this was a cumbersome process. Then Tivo entered the picture and changed the model of what was the only way to experience TV to a whole new experience of possibilities and new ways to consume television content.

We are also only beginning to see the digital shift and its impact on communication with our current cell phones. We believe we are on the verge of a mobile/computing revolution that will impact greatly many linear experiences consumer have in the world and create new nonlinear possibilities.

Suffice it to say we believe that we are at a inflection point that we will look back on in the many years ahead. Our observations will continue to amaze us at the amount of impact digital technologies had on the many aspects of our life's that we never knew existed.

Paradox of Choice

I wanted to highlight a book I have been reading called the Paradox of Choice. This book has a lot to do with consumer psychology, something I have been studying a lot lately.

The premise of the book is about how too many choices, or really to many complicated choices, actually dis-satisfy consumers instead of actually satisfy them.

I will be putting out a Brief of this book to all our clients highlighting some important things as it relates to consumer choice and how consumers make decisions about products. So if you are a paying client of ours you will get it soon. If not and you are interested feel free to e-mail me.

Does Facebook have a future

Just as more and more people are discovering Facebook, observed by the number of friend requests I get from colleagues , I am already beginning to wonder if the end has begun for Facebook. Not only has Facebook struggled and not shown a single compelling model to make money they are also struggling to keep people engaged for any period of time. Some of my latest research with over 100 social power users under the age 25, that I have observed follow and set the trends in social media, have begun alluding that they are spending less and less time on Facebook and on average less then 2 minutes at a time. They may still “check” it several times a day but again only a short burst. This does not bode well for advertisers because the future of advertising on the web will rely more on integrated efforts as opposed to banner ads or static advertising as we see today.

On top of all that Facebook does not have history on its side. If history proves true that once a market, in this case the market is social networking, reaches maturity it moves from standardization to segmentation. In short the market fragments. This is exactly what I think will happen with social networks. I have said before and still believe that social networks will number 1) become more community centric then networking centric and 2) much more focused or specialized.

All of that being said I am not sure what the future holds for Facebook. Facebook is at a number of crossroads and they need to figure out very quickly how to re-engage with people and keep them engaged by making it possible to have meaningful relationships with another human. This is the difference between a networking mentality and a community mentality. I particularly have not seen or heard a shred of visionary thinking from any top exec at Facebook that leads me to believe they have any clue where they are going. I am also quite excited about a few other communities that are popping up, which will remain nameless as they are in stealth mode currently, that may very well demonstrate what the future of online communities may look like.