Think Forward

Netflix Player by Roku - Review + Thoughts

I went over to Roku's offices in late April to meet with Roku founder Anthony Wood and several other team members to discuss this new Netflix player they developed. I've met with Anthony many times before over the past few years and always found him to be intelligent and forward thinking. He was one of the original founders of Replay TV and for that I have always given him a great deal of credit. So anything Roku puts out I am generally interested in to start. I had a rough idea of what I was going to see going into the meeting. During the course of the meeting I was pleasantly surprised with this new Netflix player by Roku that focused on Netflix. Another quick bit of history is that Anthony did a short stint at Netflix working on some of their set top box integration strategies. All of that I feel is relevant due to the rational behind this box and where it may go.

The Roku box itself is quite simple and tremendously easy to set up. The user interface is fantastic and one of my favorite features is the way is rewinds and fast forwards. Because there is no drive the entire experience is done by streaming the content right to the box. So initially one would think fast forwarding and going back in a movie would be difficult and painfully slow. That is not the case with this box. Roku worked closely with Netflix at the software layer to allow you to see scenes in the timeline of the movie both forward and back that you can simply choose to go forward to or go back to. When you do this it simply buffers the stream from that spot and then starts right where you selected. Quite nice and quite pleasant.

One other feature I really like is how it handles episodic content. Episodic content is my favorite feature of Netflix streaming and the Roku player handles it well by letting you select any of the episodes in a series and lets you pick up where left off and any current episode you were watching.

Lastly I liked more then I thought using the computer to add content instead of using the TV. My biggest beef with the first Apple TV was that it required iTunes to add and discover content to view on the TV. I felt I would have the same feeling with the Roku player however that was not the case. Probably because I was familiar with the Netflix site to add movies to my queue I found this experience to be quite nice. One could envision in the future using your PC to configure your DVR recorded shows etc. None the less there was something familiar about using the PC and the web to configure the streaming queue and movies or TV shows added to the TV interface in less then 15 seconds.

Now I am sure people will be harsh on this category, no one wants another box in the living room we know. Is this player a DMA in the future who knows. What I do know is that most other box's that extend video or media to the TV have not faired so well. I believe that is because they do so much and do not have a tangible use case attached to them that most consumers can understand. This is not the case with the Netflix player by Roku. I feel it is the simplicity of this box that will lead to it's success. I also feel that it may very well help to spur the thinking behind things like Vudu and Apple TV in the future. Once consumers get a handle on a simple use case then they will start asking what else can I do like see my photos or view networked content.

Roku can easily go that way in the future but for now simplicity will be what moves this box into consumers homes.

From analog to digital = From linear to nonlinear experiences

In many of our corporate presentations to our clients we describe how we believe we are in the middle of this journey from analog to digital. We explain how the first block of this 50 yr journey was bringing digital technologies to the enterprise. Then we explain how the next 25 yrs will be the journey to bring digital technologies to the masses. I feel as though a more fundamental observation needs to be made about this transition so that we can understand the impacts of digital technology in the future and the value that it will bring to the masses.

The observation in which I am referring to is the fact then when a digital technology presents itself in the market we always move from a linear experience to a nonlinear experience. Meaning something that was experienced in one way may now be experienced in many different ways.

In the business realm the entrance of digital technologies directly increased efficiency and productivity. This was observed early on with the first application on the personal computer assisting in moving away from paper based solutions in the workforce (linear) to digital forms of databases, communication, accounting, etc (nonlinear). I recall my first job in 1997 at Cypress Semiconductor was to completely overhaul the system of document control which was all paper based and convert it to a digital system all through the corporate Intranet. This move from linear to nonlinear experiences or processes greatly impacted and will continue to impact the enterprise of tomorrow.

In the consumer realm we have seen only a peek at what the move to digital will bring. Tivo was a good first example. Before Tivo television could only be viewed at a certain time, on a certain day, in a certain place. Unless of course you were an expert with the VCR at which point you inconveniently and many times unsuccessfully, in an analog way, time and possibly place shifted the one show you recorded. Or you could be a complete geek and have two VCR's in order to capture multiple shows. None the less this was a cumbersome process. Then Tivo entered the picture and changed the model of what was the only way to experience TV to a whole new experience of possibilities and new ways to consume television content.

We are also only beginning to see the digital shift and its impact on communication with our current cell phones. We believe we are on the verge of a mobile/computing revolution that will impact greatly many linear experiences consumer have in the world and create new nonlinear possibilities.

Suffice it to say we believe that we are at a inflection point that we will look back on in the many years ahead. Our observations will continue to amaze us at the amount of impact digital technologies had on the many aspects of our life's that we never knew existed.

Paradox of Choice

I wanted to highlight a book I have been reading called the Paradox of Choice. This book has a lot to do with consumer psychology, something I have been studying a lot lately.

The premise of the book is about how too many choices, or really to many complicated choices, actually dis-satisfy consumers instead of actually satisfy them.

I will be putting out a Brief of this book to all our clients highlighting some important things as it relates to consumer choice and how consumers make decisions about products. So if you are a paying client of ours you will get it soon. If not and you are interested feel free to e-mail me.

Does Facebook have a future

Just as more and more people are discovering Facebook, observed by the number of friend requests I get from colleagues , I am already beginning to wonder if the end has begun for Facebook. Not only has Facebook struggled and not shown a single compelling model to make money they are also struggling to keep people engaged for any period of time. Some of my latest research with over 100 social power users under the age 25, that I have observed follow and set the trends in social media, have begun alluding that they are spending less and less time on Facebook and on average less then 2 minutes at a time. They may still “check” it several times a day but again only a short burst. This does not bode well for advertisers because the future of advertising on the web will rely more on integrated efforts as opposed to banner ads or static advertising as we see today.

On top of all that Facebook does not have history on its side. If history proves true that once a market, in this case the market is social networking, reaches maturity it moves from standardization to segmentation. In short the market fragments. This is exactly what I think will happen with social networks. I have said before and still believe that social networks will number 1) become more community centric then networking centric and 2) much more focused or specialized.

All of that being said I am not sure what the future holds for Facebook. Facebook is at a number of crossroads and they need to figure out very quickly how to re-engage with people and keep them engaged by making it possible to have meaningful relationships with another human. This is the difference between a networking mentality and a community mentality. I particularly have not seen or heard a shred of visionary thinking from any top exec at Facebook that leads me to believe they have any clue where they are going. I am also quite excited about a few other communities that are popping up, which will remain nameless as they are in stealth mode currently, that may very well demonstrate what the future of online communities may look like.

How to talk to your GPS

I have recently been trying out some of the latest in car portable navigation systems. Many of these are now voice activated for my convenience of not having to use my hands while driving to configure the device. This is a great idea however current voice technology makes this a poor experience. I can see where this technology is going and how it would be nice in the middle of my route to simply say "find me a Starbucks" and be re-routed to the nearest Starbucks. However this is not quite the experience delivered currently.

I initially thought I would use the voice activation more then I have. And unfortunately more often then not when I do want to use the voice activation it doesn't work. The flip side is that is generally starts working when I don't want it to. An example being that I'm talking on the phone, through my hands free bluetooth device, and in the middle of the call usually with a client or a reporter my GPS will gawk loudly at me "DID YOU SAY CANCEL ROUTE" or my favorite "SAY A COMMAND." Interestingly during a conversation this can happen several times. There have been some times during a less formal conversation when I actually get in an argument with my GPS. It would make a great short video sometime if I have time to have my interns make it this summer.

All that being said the experience still needs to get better and more streamlined. I see where GPS manufacturers are going with the technology but more quality assurance needs to go into these for the price point for the present market.

Millennial voters and the 08 election

Because I have spent a great deal of the last 5 years researching the Millennial mindset as it relates to technology and media, I have been brought in to do some advising of several political campaigns. Every political candidate has always viewed young voters as an elusive group that rarely votes. There are a number of reason young voter turnout is generally always low but this year will be different for several reasons.

1. This year more then any year that I have been able to vote, which is just over ten years now, it truly feels like our vote can count. There doesn’t seem to be a clear winner yet in any race which really makes it feel like each vote means something.

2. The second is the Internet. Several campaigns have tremendous online platforms utilizing every possible community and web based technology to communicate with the public and encourage involvement. Because there are so many hot topics that are resonating with young voters the Internet has allowed all of us to get more information on the issues and see which candidates resonate with our values.

3. The third is psychological for Millennials. The Millennial mindset is very different from past generations. Academic research has pinpointed this demographic has having many of the same traits as the WW II generation called the “Greatest Generation.” Millennials are very sensitive to the worlds issues and feel that as a group they can be a part of the solution to make the world better. Many things have contributed to this from the news, to the Internet as well as celebrity support etc. However due to the overwhelming feeling that our country has a tainted brand and that this election is an important step in re-establishing the greatness of America not only locally but abroad as well is understood by the younger voters. This is a large contributing factor to younger voter turnout.

CES 2008 Take-Aways and Trends

This years CES was a bit lackluster in my opinion. I was surprised not to see more innovation from the handset manufacturers in terms of handset innovation for 2008. It seems like any attempt to go after the iPhone was more a follower implementation then a leading innovation.

Clearly the most innovative products at CES were the Ultra-thin HDTV’s. Sony had one of the more amazing showcases with its 11inch and 27 inch OLED TV coming in at 3MM thick.

One trend I am interested in watching this year is the connected digital picture frame space. Kodak showed me some very cool displays attached to their Easy Share service so friends and family can share pictures right to the frame. I believe there is a lot of value in this service particularly as people start getting more creative with their digital photos and desire to do more. What is better then to send those new family vacation pics right to Grandma’s frame which alerts here when she has unseen photos. Eventually this experience makes its way to the TV for a complete experience but there are still tons of barriers to overcome before that is possible. This makes the connected photo frame very important to the adoption of new display services.

The CEA also dropped some of their forecasts for this year due to economic uncertainty and possible weak consumer spending. I am bullish that the electronics sector will suffer much even if we do slide into slight reception but that is just my opinion given history and some trends but I am no economist.

With all of that said I think CES 2009 may be a very different story in terms of innovation.

Happy New Year!

Warner Brothers going 100% Blue Ray

News broke today that Warner Brothers has decided to distribute High Definition DVD's strictly on Blue Ray. This is a logical move given the costs associated with supporting three formats. There has been a great deal of consumer confusion and high definition DVD formats have suffered along with DVD sales suffering as well.

I believe Warner Brothers is looking at the installed base of formats and see Blue Ray in the lead. I think other studios may very well follow suit and start placing their bets. But this puts Blue Ray now with Sony, Warner Brothers and Blockbuster fully on board.

Let's see what happens at CES.

Vertical Social Networks - Great Examples

If you read my Future of Social networks posts a few month's ago I mentioned that we felt the value of social networks are when they are vertical or focus on people of like minds or passion. I have found a few sites that truly embody this and are gaining heads of steam. The sights are Dogster and Catster. What is very interesting about these sites is that they appeal to the animal loving community at large from a social network standpoint. But they also appeal to specific dog and cat owners who can join a sub group that is specific to their breed of dog and cat. Their is a local section so local pet clubs can interact and schedule events etc.

This is truly when the value of social network come alive. Sometimes in Silicon Valley we get caught up in the constant innovation we see around us. We forget that "middle Amercia" is not online all day browsing the web. They browse the web in spurts and only for limited times at a day if at all. For us to think they all want to spend the little time on the internet they spend searching random people is absurd. Instead we should reason that they want to spend the little time on the internet they have really getting value from it. Social networks add the most value to people's lives when you are connected with like minded people who have the same passions as you.

Dogster and Catster are great examples of this and brilliant for advertisers who want to reach animal lovers.

Macbook in Color

Henry Ford has a famous quote that says " You can buy any colour - so long as it's black". Sometimes I feel like Steve Jobs is saying the same thing with the Macbook. I wish they made Macbook's with the same color options as the iPod Nano's. I would really love a red Macbook.

There is a great site I have watched for some time now called ColorWare PC www.colorwarepc.com. They can paint your mac any color you want. I have considered having my iPhone and Macbook done red but then would be out a computer and phone.

Please Apple make the Mac's in different colors!