Think Forward

The Future of Social Networking

Last month CNET had an article from the Mash-Ups conference here in SF. The article was talking about the way kids communicate and proclaiming that kids were saying that e-mail is dead. Being very focused on technology and its usage in the lives of teenagers and college kids like I am I agree that this is true to a degree. E-mail as we know it meaning using a client such as Microsoft Outlook is dead to these kids. E-mailing is simply engrained into applications they spend lots of time on. This idea got me thinking about what happens when these kids enter the work force. Will they be forced to comply or can their social and communication habits actually influence the way they work as well. I think the former will be true and more interesting at some point in time.

What the future of social networking should look like is a simple yet powerful life portal, for lack of a better word, that exists for people to manage all the aspects of their life. MySpace does this to a degree as it is a limited life portal I will call it. In the future this life portal can manage all your contacts, calendar, photos, messages etc but will be seamlessly integrated to all your electronic devices.

I should not have to think to check my messages I need to go to Myspace. Applications will exist on my electronic devices that tie all this data together and is available from any place I can “connect” to my life portal. Meaning there is Internet access. The current structure where I have to have three separate locations online like Myspace, Facebook etc to manage my digital life is really quite ridiculous. These services can still exist but should be integrated entirely into one place like a life portal. That way I can go one place online to manage, communicate my Myspace friends or Facebook friends or just friends wherever they exist online.

The future of Social networking will seamlessly blend into my devices and the entire experience will be transparent to the end user.

Digital Ecosystem Trends & Insights

I am proud to announce the availability of our Digital-Eco System: Anticipating and Meeting the Needs of the Digitally-Connected Consumer analysis. This is an in depth look at the digital ecosystem as we see it and some of the exciting opportunities and challenges that still exist for consumers to adopt the digital ecosystem.

This document consists of much of the presentation material as well as thoughts and analysis on that material that we present to our clients regularly.

It is now available for purchase at:

http://creativestrategies.com/downloads.php

The Move to Dish Network

It took me getting completely fed up with Comcast due to their weak set top box technology and ridiculous prices to decide to move to Dish Network. I always knew that satellite providers had better prices and technology but I wasn't ready to completely change my infrastructure. Comcast again raised their prices so I decided now was the time. So I choose Dish Network. I didn't necessary choose Dish because of their price or large HD programming but because of their DVR.

I have two young children who like to watch a lot of Dora the Explorer and The Backyardigans. So I season pass the shows for them so they always have them to watch.
Now in my previous posts I mentioned I use the Belkin Pure AV remote TV. The only downfall to using that product to move my single set top box content to another room is that both rooms have to watch the same thing. So a typical scenario would be my kids would want to watch Dora in my bedroom and we would want to watch TV in the living room. With Comcast this is not possible. Dish offers a DVR that from a single set top box can drive two TV’s with separate experiences in each room, one HD and one SD. So the scenario that has now been enabled is all our DVR content can sit on one box and be accessed independently from two rooms. Now our kids can watch Dora in the bedroom and we can watch either live TV or DVR shows in the living room. This scenario is literally how I sold my wife on the switch that and the price.

Another attractive feature, which I have not yet had a chance to use, is that Dish did a deal with Archos so that you can transfer your DVR shows to the portable media player to take on the road.

Dish has made some great strides and innovations to really offer services that appeal to families. The next steps I would like to see is the DVR support 2 high definition TV’s, and enable remote access like a Sling Box offering from the DVR content as well. I would also like to see like the Archos deal another deal with a storage server so I can backup or store my DVR shows for archiving purposes.

All being said the switch to Dish was smooth and my experience has been great.

Movinflicks.com: Why this is incredibly disruptive

A new site has been born called MovinFlicks.com. What is interesting about this site is it streams movies. What is more interesting about this site is it streams movies for free. What is incredibly interesting about this site is that it streams movies for free that are still in theatres. How do you ask? Well if you read the disclaimer on the website is that they do not host the files they are simply linking to ones already online. How they appeared online is that they were most likely downloaded of BiTtorrent and then stored on a file server somewhere in the world. None the less within a few simple clicks you are streaming a full motion picture.

Why is this so disruptive? Well for starters it's crazily illegal, however what if this site over the next few month's reports 10's of millions if not more streams of it's movies. What if nothing else this site exposes market demand that shows the studios they could stream their movies at less then DVD quality and make a truck load off advertising. Similarly to what the TV networks are doing with their TV shows but for movies. What if motion picture investors could re-coupe their investments in 6 month's instead of 18.

I have no idea how long this site will last but it sure causes you to use your imagination and I really wonder if it's successful if it forces the blind studios to finally use theirs.

Can facebook become the new MySpace?

I have been using MySpace since it's peak and have begun as of late to use Facebook as well. I am hearing of loads of teenagers and young adults slowing down their MySpace usage and going over to Facebook. I can see many reason's why mainly being that from a usability standpoint Facebook is 10 times better then MySpace. If you simply want to interact with friends and more importantly keep sub-groups and networks of people seperate Facebook is a fantastic application.

So the question is can Facebook become the new MySpace. I would argue yes but a few things might stand in the way. Where Facebook accells in usability and organization it does not allow you to completely personallize your page to reflect your personality graphically or musically. MySpace also accels in the music aspect of it's offering which was why it was created in the first place. I can see why Facebook is used more by the young adult crowd who as they get older care more about friend association then personaliation to express themselves.

Since Facebook has now opened its services up to everyone, before you had to be part of a college or corporation, I believe we will see a lot of people begin to start using facebook more. The chances that a former MySpacer will start to spend less time on MySpace and more on Facebook really depends if the MySpacer is tired of spam bulletins, useless friend requests, bad and forced marketing messages and more time filtering through crap then interacting with friends. I believe the now Corporate influence of MySpace will spell its demise to users who will find a fresh and very efficient Facebook the new MySpace.

The Consumer Conundrum

I recently had a stark reality re-confirmed about consumers. This reality literally defies all that we work for in the technology sector, which is why I am calling it the consumer conundrum. The reality in which I am referring to is that most consumers are content with their current technology. Whether it is their cell phone, TV, DVD player, laptop or desktop you name it, most of them are content. This reality was re-confirmed when I was showing a friend of mine, who is a Youth Pastor and has very little to no interest in technology, my digital home lab where I am doing all sorts of great stuff like moving HD video from room to room, pausing a DVD I was watching in the living room and then picking it up where I left off in my bedroom, accessing my living room DVR shows from my bedroom, etc. When I asked him what he thought of the whole thing his response was an un-energetic “it’s cool.” I honestly can’t comprehend this response because to me this stuff is fantastic. When I asked him if he would use a set up like it he said no. He is happy with his current setup. My wife is the same way she likes the way our house is set up and thinks it is convenient but would she ever spend money on it, no way. The bottom line is most people are content with what they currently have. Consumers just aren’t driven to find the latest and greatest technologies. They don’t sit around like me and think about how ridiculous it is that my recorded TV shows are stuck in my living room. So we as an industry have to drive the real value of these products before we can expect the everyday non-techie consumer to spend actual money on them. The conundrum may be as well that we are not sure what the value is because for us there are a number of valuable things about these products. In the end it may only be one that gets consumers to spend money. I think what I am getting at is that the likely hood of the digital home, all though entirely possible today, is still a long way off.

Industries in Despair Part One - The Advertising Industry

As I look at many of the new technologies being developed by major technology companies on thing remains clear. The future of digital media will be all about giving consumers absolute control of their digital media experience. The problem with this future is that it is one that does not support today’s traditional advertising model. Advertisers are facing great challenges the likes of a prime demographic that spends more time online and playing video games then they do watching TV. Not only do they not watch TV they are conditioned to gloss over online advertising in both video games and digital media online. Not a great use of adverting dollars when you ask someone in the Gen X or below market what the last banner ad they remember is and you are faced with a blank stare. Advertisers also face great challenges with the arrival of pull VOD and IPTV. Both of these digital media strategies are about the consumer and putting the consumer in control. In an IPTV, VOD world the traditional broadcast medium changes drastically changing the way content gets to consumers. Advertisers will need to strategically evolve their strategies to be much more tightly integrated with digital media while it is being produced. The BMW films are a perfect example of great advertising in the future. The key for advertisers will be to be integrated into content consumers are pulling or choosing to see on their TV sets. You are seeing a lot more of this today with product placement on TV and the big screen however I believe this goes much farther then just pure product placement. Primarily because product placement does not necessarily get the products marketing message across. Again the BMW films come to mind. The trick for advertisers and marketers will be do not just do product placement but figure out how to integrate the brand and brand messaging into the pulled content. I believe this will take a much tighter relationship with content producers, brands and marketers and advertising agencies. Frighteningly for the networks in an IPTV, VOD world this relationship can happen independent of them and still find it's way to the consumer. Which is a great transition to my next industry in despair article about the TV Networks.

Growing up Digital

I am about to speak in Japan and China at a conference called "A day in the life of the digital consumer." The focus on my talk will be how the X and Y generations will adopt new innovative technologies the quickest and what they will demand from their technology. As I am thinking through the 45 minutes I have alloted to speak I thougt of some interesting things. We have said for a long time that this gen Y and the generation to follow will grow up completely digital. So what I did was come up with a list of things my daughters will grow up with that is much different then any generation before. My daughters will never know a world without HDTV. They will never know a world where all music, video, TV and more isn't digital and can't be moved around the house or taken with them in the car. They will never know a world without constant communication through cell phones. They will never not be able to stop, pause and rewind tv. They will never know a world where they can't express themselves creatively through digital technologies making the possibilites endless for art, video creation and musical abilities. My oldest daguther is two years old and she already has and uses an iPod, portable video player, and game boy micro. She also loves to draw, so I set up one of my tablet PC laptops to be her "art machine." I watch as she uses these digital technologies and grows up expeciting all this to be at her fingertips. When I watch TV and she want's to play or read a book, I can't use the excuse that I am watching TV when she says "pause it and play with me." This only re-inforces my belief that for companies making digital technologies the expectation and demand on technology for these generations will be remarkably high.

Home media servers

I just posted an article on my article website www.csinsights.com explanining why I feel network attached storage drives have the potential to be the home media server not PC's or next generation DVD player set top boxes. Here is the link:

http://csinsights.com/index.php?action=pg_article&id=77

eJamming - cool musical twist

I recently found a pretty cool piece of software for any musicians out there. It's called eJamming and it can be found at eJammin.com. Basically if you can plug your instrument into your computer you and any friends using the eJamming software can jam together in real time. The first version includes real time audio and next versions will have real time video as well. I have tried the software out and find it pretty cool. It is actually in real time and is a great way to play or jam with friends who can't make it over to a live jam session. The only downfall is the business model which is asking a monthly subscription. I am not sure this will model will work because musicians don't have much money and I think a fair yearly flat rate would work much better. Overall though it was pretty cool playing guitar with my friends in other states.