Think Forward

Growing up Digital

I am about to speak in Japan and China at a conference called "A day in the life of the digital consumer." The focus on my talk will be how the X and Y generations will adopt new innovative technologies the quickest and what they will demand from their technology. As I am thinking through the 45 minutes I have alloted to speak I thougt of some interesting things. We have said for a long time that this gen Y and the generation to follow will grow up completely digital. So what I did was come up with a list of things my daughters will grow up with that is much different then any generation before. My daughters will never know a world without HDTV. They will never know a world where all music, video, TV and more isn't digital and can't be moved around the house or taken with them in the car. They will never know a world without constant communication through cell phones. They will never not be able to stop, pause and rewind tv. They will never know a world where they can't express themselves creatively through digital technologies making the possibilites endless for art, video creation and musical abilities. My oldest daguther is two years old and she already has and uses an iPod, portable video player, and game boy micro. She also loves to draw, so I set up one of my tablet PC laptops to be her "art machine." I watch as she uses these digital technologies and grows up expeciting all this to be at her fingertips. When I watch TV and she want's to play or read a book, I can't use the excuse that I am watching TV when she says "pause it and play with me." This only re-inforces my belief that for companies making digital technologies the expectation and demand on technology for these generations will be remarkably high.

Sling Media and the Sling Box

So I just recently set up a great new device called the Sling Box from a company called Sling Media. Now I should start off by saying I have been following this project for a long time because a friend of mine started this company. So I will stay as objective as possible by pointing out the positives and the negatives. In case you have not heard of this device the basic premise is you set this box up at your house and connect it to a TV signal in your house and you can access that TV signal from any PC in your house or outside of your house. So for example I have it set up at my house and I watch TV from the sling box inside my house on my laptop at work. So let me go into how I have it set up both at home and at work in our CE lab. Because the Sling Box has a tuner built in I just simply plugged my COAX signal right into the Sling Box. So I get basic cable remotely. If I had run my Tivo or DVR through the sling box I could actually access my Tivo or DVR remotely and watch TV shows I have recorded as well as pause and rewind shows I am watching remotely. The later concept is very powerful and very cool. At my office in our CE lab I have a Media Center home theatre PC from HP connected to our LCD TV. I have this computer set up to access my Sling Box and watch my TV signal on the LCD. This is great because we can not get cable to our lab so I can now watch TV in our lab. The resolution on the big screen is Ok, but given all that is going on the whole thing is very impressive. On the technical side of things the Sling Box at my house is constantly monitoring my upload speed, on the client side the Sling Media player is monitoring my available bandwidth. This way the Sling Box knows how much bandwidth is available and transcodes the video in real time to always be less then the available bandwidth. This way there is never any skipping in the video. Which is one of the most impressive aspects of this device. If you have a UPNP router connected to the Sling Box it will automatically configure the router for remote TV access and viewing. If you do not have a UPNP router the set up is a little more difficult but not impossible. The experience of using the Sling Box with a set top box like a DVR or Tivo is a little slow because of the IR blaster but not too bad. I prefer using the Sling Box by itself but that is just me. What is even more cool is Sling Media is working on a client for Windows Mobile so you can access your TV from any Windows Mobile device either on and EDGE or EVDO service. I have seen this beta on an EVDO phone and it was quite impressive. With all the talk about TV on cell phones the Sling solution is pretty exciting. With current DVBH cell phone implementation you only get 16 channels. With the Sling solution you can have access to all the same TV channels you get at home. As well as the capabities to watch recorded TV on your TV and pause and rewind your tv on your cell phone. I encourage you to check it out for yourself, but don't get caught at work watching TV to kill time.

When will we see movies for sale on iTunes

I have spent a lot of time thinking about the infrastructure Apple has put together to selll digital media through iTunes. It is very interesting to think about because this step for Apple says we want to offer our infrasture to sell any kind of digital media folks want to offer. Whether is audio, video or anything else they can sell. So first it's TV and obviously next it will be movies. So let's look at what it will take for movies to be available on iTunes. Well first of all let's look at what Steve said. He said "no one wants to watch a movie on a small screen." So he feels people will watch TV on a small screen like the one on the new iPod but not movies. So before he let's movies enter the picture it will require a new device Steve feels people will watch movies on. Also for this to happen the studios have to agree to sell their movies in digital goods. This will be a tricky one because unlike the labels the studios are not desperate to change their model. The studios are really in control of this situation and can negotiate their own terms. So I feel Apple will have to offer a compensation strategy to the studios that is better or equal to their retail compensation. In the interim I am sure people will be ripping DVD's to their iPods and be quite content with it. My best guess is that movies will not show up anytime soon and most likely not before 2007. That being said there is a lot of room for experimentation from the TV networks. For example selling things no one has seen before, like extra footage of Seinfeld that never made it to the DVD's. Things like more extra features, out takes and behind the scenes. Shows can even offer spin-offs or mobisodes like in the mobile phone market. There is still so much that can be done with video for the iPod's, I am anxious to see how creative content providers can get.

Windows Mobile 5.0

I have just switched from my beloved Treo 650 to the new HP iPaq 6500. I switched mainly beacuse I love Windows Mobile and the new version has some pretty exciting new features for business users. Typically the Windows Mobile guys upgrade their software with more media centric features. This time although there are some new media centric enhancements the major focus was on business users. So that means tighter integration with Exchange which I love, my new device is basically better then a Blackberry now, as well as better management for IT folks. I have said all along Windows Mobile was the best platform for enterprise users, because of how seamlessly it works with the office apps we all use today. This version of Windows Mobile I believe will seal the deal and Microsoft should look for some big account wins with the new mobile devices. Another great feature I found was Microsoft Voice Command. This is a piece of software Microsoft developed for thier Windows Mobile devices and is in my opinion by fare the best voice recognition software available. There is no vocal training necessary for the software, anyone can pick it up and use it to launch apps, dial contacts, check schedules and more. I was so amazed the first time I used it, and now I do everything I can by voice, which is quite a lot surprisingly. If any of you out there use Windows Mobile devices I reccommend checking out Voice Command.

Three consoles three experiences

I have spoken with Microsoft and Sony regarding thier new consoles quite frequently. Nintendo however I never really get to speak with. So I was excited to get an invitation to speak with Nintendo executives in San Francisco yesterday. When I got there, they gave us a quick overview of Nintendo's plans for the holiday season. Then they let us ask questions. They answered a lot of my questions the best they good and I came away feeling comfortable of their plans for the revolution. So big picture is all three consoles are going seperate directions. Microsoft with their plans for the 360 to be a digital media hub, Sony with their cell processor and digital media capabilities and Nintendo in their own world focusing on a revoultionary experience to gaming. This time around with the new consoles I think you will generally be able to get three very seperate and very distinct experiences with the different consoles. Which is interesting becaues historically new consoles were always about better graphics and better games. That will still be the case but this time the console makers have entered better experience into the mix with some fresh new thinking about what that experience is. I am not sure what that means for the consoles except that if you have the money it will be worth it to own all three consoles.

Apple's Big Day - Video iPod

Ok, so I was wrong they did release a iPod that is capable of playing video. But to me that wasn't the biggest announcement. I thought there were two very significant announcements. The first being that you will be able to buy video, namely TV shows from ABC and Disney first for $1.99 an episode. This is very significant becuase what Apple is doing here is establishing themselves as the leader in digital media distribution. They are hoping to do for TV and eventually movies what they did with music. And that is validate a market and flush out a business model around legally buying tv and movies in a digital distribution model. So Apple has put the infrastructure and DRM in place to continue to be a leader in the distribution of digital media. Which if they continue to be successful it will only help thier hardware. The second big announcement was around the iMac. They released thier answer to the Microsoft Media Center in a product called FrontRow. It is a revolutionary way to experience your digital media with a brain dead simple remote. For me Apple is showing that they understand this market still has some challenges but by making their first step into the 10ft interface they have solidified the Mac as the digital hub of the home media experience. Their next step is to take that interface and get that rich media into the living room on your TV. I believe Apple will continue to innovate in this area and release great hardware along with solid services and a way to acquire great content.

Apple's announcement Next Wed

Apple has decided they need to throw another special event announcing something new and exciting. There is ton's of speculation on the web about it being the video iPod. I personally don't think that is the announcement. My reasons are these: Apple released the Nano which they are hoping will be a winner this holiday season. The release of the video iPod would take sales away from the iPod and Apple's history has shown they like to focus on one winning product at a time. One logical argument for the video iPod could be that they set a high price like they did with the photo iPod. Something along the $599 range. However my next point to why it may not be the video iPod is content. They set a high price with the iPod photo knowing people had stuff like pictures and album art they would want to play on a color screen. I dont' feel Apple has enough video content to release I high priced product without a great deal of content or a content service for video. I know there is some content like music video's, trailers and other video footage that comes with new albums. But is that enough for someone to spend $600 on a new iPod. So what could the announcement be, lets look at a few possibilities. A deal with the Beatles? Something like the U2 deal and iPod, possibly. A subscription service to iTunes? Possibly but doubtful. I think since they are hosting this at the same place as the U2 event it is most likely music related. So stay posted, if it is the video iPod I will post a big I WAS WRONG on my blog.

How the music labels will charge more

At CTIA wireless last week I sat in on the keynote by the CEO of Warner Music Group. Something he said about how Warner views the digital distribution of music to cell phones struck me. Clearly the music labels want to sell not just ringtones but full length high quality songs to cell phones. Through some kind of over the air music store. However he went out of his way to say that the songs they had sold of a few select artists already they sold at a price higher then that of the online music stores. This means that the record labels feel they can charge more then .99 cents if the song is bought on a cell phone. Let them give it a shot, I still feel charging more for music will only contribute to piracy. What was very enlightening about his speech was how big of a priortity the music industry feels digital distribution is, with that they feel thier platform for success is the cell phone not the PC. The way the music industry handles this will be very interesting to watch.